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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-10 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection located southwest of its center, while the center itself was exposed for a few hours earlier this morning. The structure of the cyclone has changed little since yesterday, and remains somewhat elongated. The estimated initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Kevin continues to make its jog to the northwest, and the initial motion is 315/08 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Model guidance has continued to make a gradual shift to the north for the past several runs, and thus the latest NHC track forecast has been nudged a little northward as well, lying just south of the consensus models. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next 24 h, which should limit the cyclone's ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in strength through much of tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday morning. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.1N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 25.2N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 27.2N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 28.7N 131.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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