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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-10 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 102033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida continues to gradually gain strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and curved bands that surround that feature. Recent microwave images show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it from completely closing off. The satellite intensity estimates have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane. The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island. The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional strengthening seems likely during that time period. After that, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening trend. Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C waters. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days. Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. After that time, the models diverge with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the HWRF, UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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