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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-05 22:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 20:58:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-05 22:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 20:58:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-06-05 22:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052051 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 The center of the tropical cyclone has moved into the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier scatterometer and surface synoptic data indicated that the system had already re-strengthened into a tropical storm. The system has been exhibiting fairly well-defined convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, the central convection is minimal at this time and upper-level outflow is being restricted over the southwestern quadrant due to a trough over the Bay of Campeche. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with the earlier observations. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, which should provide a good estimate of Cristobal's strength. Although the cyclone will be traversing fairly warm waters during the next couple of days, dry mid-level air and some southwesterly shear is expected to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous ones and close to the model consensus. Cristobal has moved a little faster over the past several hours, and the current motion is estimated to be northward at 11 kt. For the next couple of days, the cyclone should continue to move generally northward through a weakness between subtropical high pressure areas. A bend toward the north-northwest is forecast just after landfall on the northern Gulf Coast due to the slight building of a ridge to the northeast of Cristobal. The size of the wind field and timing of the new track forecast require the issuance of storm surge and tropical storm warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.9N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z 32.8N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 39.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 10/1800Z 50.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-05 22:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 20:51:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 20:51:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-06-05 22:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 052050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 27(45) X(45) X(45) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 28(49) 1(50) X(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 16(55) 1(56) X(56) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 16(16) 48(64) 9(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 25(52) 1(53) X(53) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 10(10) 39(49) 10(59) 4(63) 1(64) X(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 1(45) X(45) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 24(45) 1(46) X(46) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 1(28) X(28) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) X(35) X(35) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 19(50) X(50) X(50) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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